Saturday 29 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–3✗ missed — the win we priced at 24% · RPS 0.404
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Auxerre
IndexAttackDefense
48% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Angers
IndexAttackDefense
AUXERRE 48%DRAW 28%ANGERS 24%
FT 1–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.404). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
1.4 · 0.9
Auxerre — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Angers — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Auxerre and Angers — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.