Sunday 23 Aug, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 22% · RPS 0.164
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Atletico-Madrid
IndexAttackDefense
50% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Villarreal
IndexAttackDefense
ATLETICO-MADRID 50%DRAW 22%VILLARREAL 27%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.164). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.5
Atletico-Madrid — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Villarreal — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atletico-Madrid and Villarreal — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.