Wednesday 19 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✓ called — the win we priced at 72% · RPS 0.044
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Atletico-Madrid

IndexAttackDefense
72% WIN
2–0
Most likely score

Malaga

IndexAttackDefense
ATLETICO-MADRID 72%DRAW 16%MALAGA 11%
FT 2–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.044). Graded 2026-08-20 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams score
51%
Expected goals
2.4 · 0.8
Atletico-Madrid — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Malaga — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atletico-Madrid and Malaga — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.