Saturday 22 Aug, 16:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–3✗ missed — the win we priced at 17% · RPS 0.509
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Athletic-Club

IndexAttackDefense
58% WIN
1–0
Most likely score

Sevilla

IndexAttackDefense
ATHLETIC-CLUB 58%DRAW 25%SEVILLA 17%
FT 1–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.509). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
47%
Expected goals
1.7 · 0.8
Athletic-Club — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Sevilla — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Athletic-Club and Sevilla — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.