Sunday 23 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✓ called — the win we priced at 61% · RPS 0.086
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Atalanta
IndexAttackDefense
61% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Sassuolo
IndexAttackDefense
ATALANTA 61%DRAW 24%SASSUOLO 15%
FT 2–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.086). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
54%
Expected goals
2.0 · 0.9
Atalanta — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Sassuolo — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atalanta and Sassuolo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.