Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Aston Villa
46Index51Attack42Defense
LWWDL
46%AVL WIN
2–1
Likeliest AVL win · 9%
Nottingham Forest
43Index42Attack47Defense
DLDLD
ASTON VILLA 46%DRAW 26%FOREST 28%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.3
Why
- The model makes this 46% vs 28% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
AVL 42 drawn2 NOT
2025/26NOT1–1AVL2026-04-12
2025/26AVL3–1NOT2026-01-03
2024/25AVL2–1NOT2025-04-05
2024/25NOT2–1AVL2024-12-14
2023/24AVL4–2NOT2024-02-24
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Forest — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
AVL or draw72%
Draw or NOT55%
AVL or NOTno draw74%
Draw no bet
AVLstake returned on a draw62%
NOT38%
Clean sheets
AVL clean sheet28%
NOT clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AVL↓ NOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AVL goals, columns NOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29AVL 45.5% (−2.8 since first)draw 26.0%NOT 28.5%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.