Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–2✗ missed — the NOT win we priced at 27% · RPS 0.372
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Aston Villa

44Index46Attack43Defense
DWLDL
46%AVL WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Nottingham Forest

47Index47Attack48Defense
LLWDD
ASTON VILLA 46%DRAW 27%FOREST 27%
FT 1–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.372). Graded 2026-09-12 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.2
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
AVL 42 drawn2 NOT
2025/26NOT1–1AVL2026-04-12
2025/26AVL3–1NOT2026-01-03
2024/25AVL2–1NOT2025-04-05
2024/25NOT2–1AVL2024-12-14
2023/24AVL4–2NOT2024-02-24
Aston Villa — projected scorers
John McGinn10%25% astAST
Ollie Watkins26%8% ast—
Emiliano Buendía12%20% ast—
Ross Barkley13%15% ast—
Ian Maatsen4%15% ast—
Morgan Rogers8%9% ast—
Forest — projected scorers
Morgan Gibbs-White30%18% astAST
Igor Jesus27%5% astGOAL
James McAtee2%15% ast—
Taiwo Awoniyi11%4% ast—
Neco Williams5%8% ast—
Dan Ndoye4%8% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.