Saturday 24 Oct, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Aston Villa
42Index47Attack38Defense
WLDLL
51%MCI WIN
1–2
Likeliest MCI win · 9%
Manchester City
84Index86Attack71Defense
WWWWW
ASTON VILLA 25%DRAW 24%MAN CITY 51%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals
1.4 · 2.0
Why
- Manchester City attack index 86 meets Aston Villa defense index 38 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 25% vs 51% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2014/15
AVL 42 drawn12 MCI
2025/26MCI1–2AVL2026-05-24
2025/26AVL1–0MCI2025-10-26
2024/25MCI2–1AVL2025-04-22
2024/25AVL2–1MCI2024-12-21
2023/24MCI4–1AVL2024-04-03
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Man City — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
AVL or draw49%
Draw or MCI75%
AVL or MCIno draw76%
Draw no bet
AVLstake returned on a draw33%
MCI67%
Clean sheets
AVL clean sheet14%
MCI clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AVL↓ MCI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AVL goals, columns MCI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-10) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.