Saturday 10 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Aston Villa
42Index47Attack38Defense
WLDLL
39%BRE WIN
1–2
Likeliest BRE win · 8%
Brentford
58Index67Attack44Defense
WDDDW
ASTON VILLA 37%DRAW 25%BRENTFORD 39%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.7
Why
- Brentford attack index 67 meets Aston Villa defense index 38 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 37% vs 39% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2021/22
AVL 43 drawn3 BRE
2025/26AVL0–1BRE2026-02-01
2025/26BRE1–0AVL2025-08-23
2024/25BRE0–1AVL2025-03-08
2024/25AVL3–1BRE2024-12-04
2023/24AVL3–3BRE2024-04-06
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Brentford — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
AVL or draw61%
Draw or BRE64%
AVL or BREno draw75%
Draw no bet
AVLstake returned on a draw49%
BRE51%
Clean sheets
AVL clean sheet18%
BRE clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AVL↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AVL goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.