Monday 31 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 10)
Aston Villa
46Index51Attack42Defense
LWWDL
55%ARS WIN
1–2
Likeliest ARS win · 10%
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
WWWWW
ASTON VILLA 20%DRAW 25%ARSENAL 55%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.0 · 1.8
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Aston Villa defense index 42 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- Arsenal have 2 extra days of rest.
- The model makes this 20% vs 55% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2014/15
AVL 61 drawn11 ARS
2025/26ARS4–1AVL2025-12-30
2025/26AVL2–1ARS2025-12-06
2024/25ARS2–2AVL2025-01-18
2024/25AVL0–2ARS2024-08-24
2023/24ARS0–2AVL2024-04-14
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Arsenal — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
AVL or draw45%
Draw or ARS80%
AVL or ARSno draw75%
Draw no bet
AVLstake returned on a draw27%
ARS73%
Clean sheets
AVL clean sheet16%
ARS clean sheet36%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| AVL↓ ARS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are AVL goals, columns ARS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 10 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24AVL 20.0% (−2.6 since first)draw 24.9%ARS 55.2%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.