Monday 31 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✓ called — the ARS win we priced at 55% · RPS 0.120
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Aston Villa

44Index46Attack43Defense
DWLDL
55%ARS WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Arsenal

99Index81Attack99Defense
WLWWW
ASTON VILLA 20%DRAW 25%ARSENAL 55%
FT 0–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.120). Graded 2026-08-31 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.0 · 1.8
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2014/15
AVL 61 drawn11 ARS
2025/26ARS4–1AVL2025-12-30
2025/26AVL2–1ARS2025-12-06
2024/25ARS2–2AVL2025-01-18
2024/25AVL0–2ARS2024-08-24
2023/24ARS0–2AVL2024-04-14
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Ollie Watkins28%8% ast—
Ross Barkley9%11% ast—
John McGinn3%15% ast—
Emiliano Buendía5%12% ast—
Morgan Rogers8%9% ast—
Ian Maatsen2%10% ast—
Arsenal — projected scorers
Kai Havertz30%13% ast—
Viktor Gyokeres27%6% ast—
Bukayo Saka11%22% astGOAL
Noni Madueke2%13% ast—
Riccardo Calafiori9%5% astAST
Gabriel Martinelli7%7% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.