Saturday 10 Oct, 12:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
LWWWW
61%ARS WIN
2–0
Likeliest ARS win · 11%
Leeds United
55Index49Attack60Defense
DWDDW
ARSENAL 61%DRAW 24%LEEDS 15%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
51%
Expected goals
1.9 · 0.9
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Leeds United defense index 60 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 61% vs 15% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
ARS 71 drawn0 LEE
2025/26LEE0–4ARS2026-01-31
2025/26ARS5–0LEE2025-08-23
2022/23ARS4–1LEE2023-04-01
2022/23LEE0–1ARS2022-10-16
2021/22ARS2–1LEE2022-05-08
Arsenal — projected scorers
Leeds — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
ARS or draw85%
Draw or LEE39%
ARS or LEEno draw76%
Draw no bet
ARSstake returned on a draw80%
LEE20%
Clean sheets
ARS clean sheet42%
LEE clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ARS↓ LEE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ARS goals, columns LEE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.