Friday 21 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–0✓ called — the ARS win we priced at 83% · RPS 0.015
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
WWWWW
83%ARS WIN
2–0
Most likely score
Coventry City
33Index3Attack73Defense
LL
ARSENAL 83%DRAW 13%COVENTRY 4%
FT 3–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.015). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
41%
Expected goals
2.8 · 0.6
Arsenal — projected scorers
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Coventry — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.