Sunday 6 Sept, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 6)
Arsenal
99Index77Attack99Defense
WWWWW
63%ARS WIN
2–0
Likeliest ARS win · 10%
Chelsea
61Index68Attack49Defense
WWLWD
ARSENAL 63%DRAW 22%CHELSEA 16%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.0
Why
- Arsenal attack index 77 meets Chelsea defense index 49 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 63% vs 15% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
ARS 107 drawn7 CHE
2025/26ARS2–1CHE2026-03-01
2025/26CHE1–1ARS2025-11-30
2024/25ARS1–0CHE2025-03-16
2024/25CHE1–1ARS2024-11-10
2023/24ARS5–0CHE2024-04-23
Arsenal — projected scorers
Chelsea — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
ARS or draw85%
Draw or CHE37%
ARS or CHEno draw78%
Draw no bet
ARSstake returned on a draw80%
CHE20%
Clean sheets
ARS clean sheet38%
CHE clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ARS↓ CHE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ARS goals, columns CHE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 6 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29ARS 62.8% (−2.1 since first)draw 21.7%CHE 15.5%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.