Sunday 23 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
02✓ called — the win we priced at 55% · RPS 0.117
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Angers

IndexAttackDefense
55% WIN
01
Most likely score

Lille

IndexAttackDefense
ANGERS 18%DRAW 27%LILLE 55%
FT 02 — the model called it (RPS 0.117). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Both teams score
44%
Expected goals
0.8 · 1.6
Angers — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Lille — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Angers and Lille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.