Friday 28 Aug, 20:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the win we priced at 40% · RPS 0.239
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Alaves
IndexAttackDefense
40% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Villarreal
IndexAttackDefense
ALAVES 40%DRAW 25%VILLARREAL 35%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.239). Graded 2026-08-28 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.5
Alaves — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Villarreal — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Alaves and Villarreal — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.