Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Troyes vs Strasbourg
Sunday 6 Sept, 13:00
22 · 25 · 53TRO · draw · STR
0–1
Likeliest STR win · 10%
TROYES 22%DRAW 25%STRASBOURG 53%
Expected goals: TRO 1.04 · STR 1.72
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
TRO or draw47%
Draw or STR78%
TRO or STRno draw75%
Draw no bet
TROstake returned on a draw30%
STR71%
Clean sheets
TRO clean sheet18%
STR clean sheet35%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TRO↓ STR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TRO goals, columns STR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Troyes and Strasbourg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2017/18
TRO 23 drawn1 STR
2022/23Troyes1–1Strasbourg2023-05-21
2022/23Strasbourg2–3Troyes2023-01-02
2021/22Troyes1–1Strasbourg2022-04-17
2021/22Strasbourg1–1Troyes2021-08-22
2017/18Strasbourg2–1Troyes2018-02-11
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.