Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Troyes vs Marseille
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
15 · 18 · 67TRO · draw · MAR
1–2
Likeliest MAR win · 9%
TROYES 15%DRAW 18%MARSEILLE 67%
Expected goals: TRO 1.13 · MAR 2.51
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
TRO or draw33%
Draw or MAR85%
TRO or MARno draw82%
Draw no bet
TROstake returned on a draw18%
MAR82%
Clean sheets
TRO clean sheet8%
MAR clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TRO↓ MAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TRO goals, columns MAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Troyes and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2015/16
TRO 02 drawn6 MAR
2022/23Marseille3–1Troyes2023-04-16
2022/23Troyes0–2Marseille2023-01-11
2021/22Troyes1–1Marseille2022-02-27
2021/22Marseille1–0Troyes2021-11-28
2017/18Troyes2–3Marseille2018-04-15
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.