Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Troyes vs Lens
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
10 · 16 · 74TRO · draw · LEN
0–2
Likeliest LEN win · 10%
TROYES 10%DRAW 16%LENS 74%
Expected goals: TRO 0.91 · LEN 2.67
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals48%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
TRO or draw26%
Draw or LEN90%
TRO or LENno draw84%
Draw no bet
TROstake returned on a draw12%
LEN88%
Clean sheets
TRO clean sheet7%
LEN clean sheet40%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TRO↓ LEN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TRO goals, columns LEN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Troyes and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2021/22
TRO 01 drawn3 LEN
2022/23Troyes1–1Lens2023-01-28
2022/23Lens1–0Troyes2022-09-09
2021/22Troyes1–3Lens2022-05-14
2021/22Lens4–0Troyes2021-11-05
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.