Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Troyes vs Le Mans
Saturday 31 Oct, 19:45
33 · 26 · 41TRO · draw · LMF
1–2
Likeliest LMF win · 9%
TROYES 33%DRAW 26%LE MANS 41%
Expected goals: TRO 1.37 · LMF 1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
TRO or draw59%
Draw or LMF67%
TRO or LMFno draw74%
Draw no bet
TROstake returned on a draw45%
LMF55%
Clean sheets
TRO clean sheet21%
LMF clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TRO↓ LMF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TRO goals, columns LMF. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Troyes and Le Mans — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.