Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Toulouse vs Troyes
Saturday 24 Oct, 16:15
70 · 19 · 11TOU · draw · TRO
2–0
Likeliest TOU win · 12%
TOULOUSE 70%DRAW 19%TROYES 11%
Expected goals: TOU 2.24 · TRO 0.78
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
TOU or draw89%
Draw or TRO30%
TOU or TROno draw81%
Draw no bet
TOUstake returned on a draw87%
TRO13%
Clean sheets
TOU clean sheet46%
TRO clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOU↓ TRO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOU goals, columns TRO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Toulouse and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
TOU 51 drawn0 TRO
2022/23Toulouse4–1Troyes2023-02-01
2022/23Troyes0–3Toulouse2022-08-14
2017/18Toulouse1–0Troyes2018-01-27
2017/18Troyes0–0Toulouse2017-09-09
2015/16Toulouse1–0Troyes2016-05-07
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.