Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Toulouse vs Lille
Thursday 3 Sept, 18:45
33 · 30 · 38TOU · draw · LIL
0–1
Likeliest LIL win · 11%
TOULOUSE 33%DRAW 30%LILLE 38%
Expected goals: TOU 1.14 · LIL 1.26
Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
TOU or draw62%
Draw or LIL68%
TOU or LILno draw71%
Draw no bet
TOUstake returned on a draw46%
LIL54%
Clean sheets
TOU clean sheet28%
LIL clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| TOU↓ LIL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are TOU goals, columns LIL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Toulouse and Lille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
TOU 54 drawn11 LIL
2025/26Toulouse0–4Lille2026-04-12
2025/26Lille2–1Toulouse2025-09-14
2024/25Toulouse1–2Lille2025-04-12
2024/25Lille2–1Toulouse2024-10-05
2023/24Toulouse3–1Lille2024-02-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.