Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Toulouse vs Le Havre

Saturday 19 Sept, 18:45
Full time
3–2
chances 2.83 – 2.16 xG
✓ called — we picked TOU; the TOU win we priced at 56%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
56 · 25 · 18TOU · draw · LE
1–0
Likeliest TOU win · 12%
TOULOUSE 56%DRAW 25%LE HAVRE 18%

Expected goals: TOU 1.72 · LE 0.88

Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
TOU or draw82%
Draw or LE44%
TOU or LEno draw75%
Draw no bet
TOUstake returned on a draw76%
LE25%
Clean sheets
TOU clean sheet41%
LE clean sheet18%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
TOU↓ LE→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
3–2 · 2.5%
A TOU win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Toulouse and Le Havre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
TOU 21 drawn3 LE
2025/26Le Havre2–1Toulouse2026-02-15
2025/26Toulouse0–0Le Havre2025-11-02
2024/25Le Havre1–4Toulouse2025-02-23
2024/25Toulouse2–0Le Havre2024-09-15
2023/24Le Havre1–0Toulouse2024-03-10

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.