Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Strasbourg vs PSG
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
22 · 23 · 56STR · draw · PSG
1–2
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
STRASBOURG 22%DRAW 23%PSG 56%
Expected goals: STR 1.21 · PSG 2.02
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
STR or draw44%
Draw or PSG78%
STR or PSGno draw77%
Draw no bet
STRstake returned on a draw28%
PSG72%
Clean sheets
STR clean sheet13%
PSG clean sheet30%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| STR↓ PSG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are STR goals, columns PSG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and PSG — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 17 meetings since 2017/18
STR 25 drawn10 PSG
2025/26Strasbourg1–2PSG2026-02-01
2025/26PSG3–3Strasbourg2025-10-17
2024/25Strasbourg2–1PSG2025-05-03
2024/25PSG4–2Strasbourg2024-10-19
2023/24Strasbourg1–2PSG2024-02-02
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.