Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Strasbourg vs Monaco
Saturday 12 Sept, 15:15
35 · 25 · 40STR · draw · MON
1–2
Likeliest MON win · 9%
STRASBOURG 35%DRAW 25%MONACO 40%
Expected goals: STR 1.54 · MON 1.64
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
STR or draw60%
Draw or MON65%
STR or MONno draw75%
Draw no bet
STRstake returned on a draw47%
MON53%
Clean sheets
STR clean sheet19%
MON clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| STR↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are STR goals, columns MON. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2017/18
STR 63 drawn9 MON
2025/26Strasbourg5–4Monaco2026-05-17
2025/26Monaco3–2Strasbourg2025-08-31
2024/25Monaco0–0Strasbourg2025-04-19
2024/25Strasbourg1–3Monaco2024-11-09
2023/24Strasbourg0–1Monaco2024-03-10
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.