Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Strasbourg vs Monaco

Saturday 12 Sept, 16:15
Full time
1–1
chances 0.67 – 0.77 xG
✗ missed — we picked MON; the draw we priced at 24%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
37 · 24 · 39STR · draw · MON
1–2
Likeliest MON win · 8%
STRASBOURG 37%DRAW 24%MONACO 39%

Expected goals: STR 1.63 · MON 1.68

Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
STR or draw61%
Draw or MON63%
STR or MONno draw76%
Draw no bet
STRstake returned on a draw49%
MON52%
Clean sheets
STR clean sheet19%
MON clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
STR↓ MON→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 10.6%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 18 meetings since 2017/18
STR 63 drawn9 MON
2025/26Strasbourg5–4Monaco2026-05-17
2025/26Monaco3–2Strasbourg2025-08-31
2024/25Monaco0–0Strasbourg2025-04-19
2024/25Strasbourg1–3Monaco2024-11-09
2023/24Strasbourg0–1Monaco2024-03-10

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.