Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Strasbourg vs Lens
Saturday 29 Aug, 15:15
Full time
2–1
chances 1.86 – 2.95 xG
✗ missed — we picked LEN; the STR win we priced at 27%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
27 · 24 · 50STR · draw · LEN
1–2
Likeliest LEN win · 9%
STRASBOURG 27%DRAW 24%LENS 50%
Expected goals: STR 1.37 · LEN 1.92
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
STR or draw50%
Draw or LEN73%
STR or LENno draw77%
Draw no bet
STRstake returned on a draw35%
LEN65%
Clean sheets
STR clean sheet15%
LEN clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| STR↓ LEN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 6.7%
A STR win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and Lens — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2020/21
STR 43 drawn5 LEN
2025/26Strasbourg1–1Lens2026-02-27
2025/26Lens1–0Strasbourg2025-11-22
2024/25Lens0–2Strasbourg2025-02-16
2024/25Strasbourg2–2Lens2024-10-06
2023/24Lens3–1Strasbourg2024-02-10
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.