Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Sunday 1 Nov, 14:00
54 · 24 · 22STR · draw · AUX
2–1
Likeliest STR win · 10%
STRASBOURG 54%DRAW 24%AUXERRE 22%
Expected goals: STR 1.84 · AUX 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
STR or draw78%
Draw or AUX46%
STR or AUXno draw76%
Draw no bet
STRstake returned on a draw71%
AUX29%
Clean sheets
STR clean sheet33%
AUX clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| STR↓ AUX→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are STR goals, columns AUX. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Strasbourg and Auxerre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
STR 41 drawn1 AUX
2025/26Auxerre0–0Strasbourg2026-03-07
2025/26Strasbourg3–0Auxerre2025-10-29
2024/25Auxerre0–1Strasbourg2025-03-02
2024/25Strasbourg3–1Auxerre2025-01-05
2022/23Strasbourg2–0Auxerre2023-03-19
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.