Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Rennes vs Strasbourg
Sunday 25 Oct, 16:15
46 · 24 · 30REN · draw · STR
2–1
Likeliest REN win · 9%
RENNES 46%DRAW 24%STRASBOURG 30%
Expected goals: REN 1.89 · STR 1.50
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
REN or draw70%
Draw or STR54%
REN or STRno draw77%
Draw no bet
RENstake returned on a draw61%
STR39%
Clean sheets
REN clean sheet22%
STR clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REN↓ STR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are REN goals, columns STR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Strasbourg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 17 meetings since 2017/18
REN 102 drawn5 STR
2025/26Strasbourg0–3Rennes2026-04-19
2025/26Rennes4–1Strasbourg2025-11-02
2024/25Rennes1–0Strasbourg2025-02-02
2024/25Strasbourg3–1Rennes2024-08-25
2023/24Strasbourg2–0Rennes2024-03-31
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.