Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Rennes vs Marseille
Friday 11 Sept, 18:45
37 · 23 · 40REN · draw · MAR
1–2
Likeliest MAR win · 8%
RENNES 37%DRAW 23%MARSEILLE 40%
Expected goals: REN 1.73 · MAR 1.81
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals47%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
REN or draw60%
Draw or MAR63%
REN or MARno draw77%
Draw no bet
RENstake returned on a draw48%
MAR52%
Clean sheets
REN clean sheet16%
MAR clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REN↓ MAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are REN goals, columns MAR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
REN 75 drawn12 MAR
2025/26Marseille3–1Rennes2026-05-17
2025/26Rennes1–0Marseille2025-08-15
2024/25Marseille4–2Rennes2025-05-17
2024/25Rennes1–2Marseille2025-01-11
2023/24Rennes2–0Marseille2024-03-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.