Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)

Rennes vs Marseille

Friday 11 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–0
chances 2.32 – 1.31 xG
✗ missed — we picked MAR; the REN win we priced at 38%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
38 · 23 · 39REN · draw · MAR
1–2
Likeliest MAR win · 8%
RENNES 38%DRAW 23%MARSEILLE 39%

Expected goals: REN 1.82 · MAR 1.85

Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams score71%
Double chance
REN or draw61%
Draw or MAR62%
REN or MARno draw77%
Draw no bet
RENstake returned on a draw49%
MAR51%
Clean sheets
REN clean sheet16%
MAR clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
REN↓ MAR→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–0 · 4.2%
A REN win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
REN 75 drawn12 MAR
2025/26Marseille3–1Rennes2026-05-17
2025/26Rennes1–0Marseille2025-08-15
2024/25Marseille4–2Rennes2025-05-17
2024/25Rennes1–2Marseille2025-01-11
2023/24Rennes2–0Marseille2024-03-17

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.