Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Rennes vs Le Mans
Sunday 30 Aug, 15:15
Full time
3–2
chances 3.64 – 2.72 xG
✓ called — we picked REN; the REN win we priced at 59%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
59 · 22 · 18REN · draw · LMF
2–1
Likeliest REN win · 10%
RENNES 59%DRAW 22%LE MANS 18%
Expected goals: REN 2.02 · LMF 1.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
REN or draw82%
Draw or LMF41%
REN or LMFno draw78%
Draw no bet
RENstake returned on a draw76%
LMF24%
Clean sheets
REN clean sheet35%
LMF clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REN↓ LMF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–2 · 3.6%
A REN win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Le Mans — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.