Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Rennes vs Auxerre
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
56 · 23 · 21REN · draw · AUX
2–1
Likeliest REN win · 10%
RENNES 56%DRAW 23%AUXERRE 21%
Expected goals: REN 1.97 · AUX 1.14
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
REN or draw79%
Draw or AUX44%
REN or AUXno draw77%
Draw no bet
RENstake returned on a draw73%
AUX27%
Clean sheets
REN clean sheet32%
AUX clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| REN↓ AUX→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are REN goals, columns AUX. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Rennes and Auxerre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
REN 22 drawn2 AUX
2025/26Auxerre0–3Rennes2026-02-22
2025/26Rennes2–2Auxerre2025-10-19
2024/25Rennes0–1Auxerre2025-04-06
2024/25Auxerre4–0Rennes2024-11-03
2022/23Auxerre0–0Rennes2023-03-11
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.