Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
PSG vs Rennes
Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45
Full time
0–0
chances 0.63 – 0.91 xG
✗ missed — we picked PSG; the draw we priced at 17%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
71 · 17 · 12PSG · draw · REN
2–1
Likeliest PSG win · 9%
PSG 71%DRAW 17%RENNES 12%
Expected goals: PSG 2.65 · REN 1.04
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
PSG or draw88%
Draw or REN29%
PSG or RENno draw83%
Draw no bet
PSGstake returned on a draw86%
REN14%
Clean sheets
PSG clean sheet35%
REN clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PSG↓ REN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 3.0%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on PSG and Rennes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 23 meetings since 2014/15
PSG 143 drawn6 REN
2025/26Rennes3–1PSG2026-02-13
2025/26PSG5–0Rennes2025-12-06
2024/25Rennes1–4PSG2025-03-08
2024/25PSG3–1Rennes2024-09-27
2023/24PSG1–1Rennes2024-02-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.