Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
PSG vs Monaco
Friday 4 Sept, 20:05
Full time
1–2
chances 2.52 – 0.60 xG
✗ missed — we picked PSG; the MON win we priced at 18%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
60 · 21 · 18PSG · draw · MON
2–1
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
PSG 60%DRAW 21%MONACO 18%
Expected goals: PSG 2.16 · MON 1.13
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
PSG or draw82%
Draw or MON40%
PSG or MONno draw79%
Draw no bet
PSGstake returned on a draw77%
MON23%
Clean sheets
PSG clean sheet32%
MON clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PSG↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–2 · 5.1%
A MON win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on PSG and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
PSG 106 drawn8 MON
2025/26PSG1–3Monaco2026-03-06
2025/26Monaco1–0PSG2025-11-29
2024/25PSG4–1Monaco2025-02-07
2024/25Monaco2–4PSG2024-12-18
2023/24Monaco0–0PSG2024-03-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.