Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
PSG vs Monaco
Friday 4 Sept, 19:05
59 · 22 · 19PSG · draw · MON
2–1
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
PSG 59%DRAW 22%MONACO 19%
Expected goals: PSG 2.12 · MON 1.14
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
PSG or draw81%
Draw or MON41%
PSG or MONno draw78%
Draw no bet
PSGstake returned on a draw76%
MON24%
Clean sheets
PSG clean sheet32%
MON clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PSG↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PSG goals, columns MON. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on PSG and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
PSG 106 drawn8 MON
2025/26PSG1–3Monaco2026-03-06
2025/26Monaco1–0PSG2025-11-29
2024/25PSG4–1Monaco2025-02-07
2024/25Monaco2–4PSG2024-12-18
2023/24Monaco0–0PSG2024-03-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.