Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
PSG vs Lyon
Sunday 25 Oct, 19:45
62 · 21 · 17PSG · draw · LYO
2–1
Likeliest PSG win · 10%
PSG 62%DRAW 21%LYON 17%
Expected goals: PSG 2.21 · LYO 1.09
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
PSG or draw83%
Draw or LYO38%
PSG or LYOno draw79%
Draw no bet
PSGstake returned on a draw79%
LYO21%
Clean sheets
PSG clean sheet34%
LYO clean sheet11%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PSG↓ LYO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PSG goals, columns LYO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on PSG and Lyon — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
PSG 153 drawn6 LYO
2025/26PSG1–2Lyon2026-04-19
2025/26Lyon2–3PSG2025-11-09
2024/25Lyon2–3PSG2025-02-23
2024/25PSG3–1Lyon2024-12-15
2023/24PSG4–1Lyon2024-04-21
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.