Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Paris FC vs Strasbourg
Saturday 19 Sept, 15:15
Full time
2–1
chances 0.91 – 0.23 xG
✓ called — we picked PAR; the PAR win we priced at 44%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
44 · 25 · 31PAR · draw · STR
2–1
Likeliest PAR win · 9%
PARIS FC 44%DRAW 25%STRASBOURG 31%
Expected goals: PAR 1.66 · STR 1.37
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
PAR or draw69%
Draw or STR56%
PAR or STRno draw75%
Draw no bet
PARstake returned on a draw58%
STR42%
Clean sheets
PAR clean sheet25%
STR clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAR↓ STR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–1 · 9.1%
A PAR win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris FC and Strasbourg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
PAR 01 drawn1 STR
2025/26Strasbourg0–0Paris FC2026-03-15
2025/26Paris FC2–3Strasbourg2025-09-21
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.