Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Paris FC vs Nice
Sunday 30 Aug, 13:00
Full time
3–0
chances 3.02 – 0.59 xG
✓ called — we picked PAR; the PAR win we priced at 45%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
45 · 26 · 29PAR · draw · NIC
2–1
Likeliest PAR win · 9%
PARIS FC 45%DRAW 26%NICE 29%
Expected goals: PAR 1.61 · NIC 1.27
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
PAR or draw71%
Draw or NIC55%
PAR or NICno draw74%
Draw no bet
PARstake returned on a draw60%
NIC40%
Clean sheets
PAR clean sheet28%
NIC clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAR↓ NIC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–0 · 3.8%
A PAR win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris FC and Nice — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
PAR 11 drawn0 NIC
2025/26Paris FC1–0Nice2026-03-01
2025/26Nice1–1Paris FC2025-09-28
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.