Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Paris FC vs Monaco
Sunday 1 Nov, 16:15
38 · 26 · 36PAR · draw · MON
2–1
Likeliest PAR win · 8%
PARIS FC 38%DRAW 26%MONACO 36%
Expected goals: PAR 1.49 · MON 1.46
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
PAR or draw64%
Draw or MON62%
PAR or MONno draw74%
Draw no bet
PARstake returned on a draw51%
MON49%
Clean sheets
PAR clean sheet23%
MON clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAR↓ MON→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PAR goals, columns MON. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris FC and Monaco — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
PAR 20 drawn0 MON
2025/26Paris FC4–1Monaco2026-04-10
2025/26Monaco0–1Paris FC2025-11-01
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.