Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Paris FC vs Lyon
Saturday 12 Sept, 18:45
38 · 26 · 36PAR · draw · LYO
2–1
Likeliest PAR win · 8%
PARIS FC 38%DRAW 26%LYON 36%
Expected goals: PAR 1.50 · LYO 1.46
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
PAR or draw64%
Draw or LYO62%
PAR or LYOno draw74%
Draw no bet
PARstake returned on a draw51%
LYO49%
Clean sheets
PAR clean sheet23%
LYO clean sheet22%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAR↓ LYO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are PAR goals, columns LYO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris FC and Lyon — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
PAR 02 drawn0 LYO
2025/26Lyon1–1Paris FC2026-03-08
2025/26Paris FC3–3Lyon2025-10-29
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.