Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Paris FC vs Lyon
Saturday 12 Sept, 19:45
Full time
0–0
chances 0.58 – 0.40 xG
✗ missed — we picked PAR; the draw we priced at 26%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
39 · 26 · 35PAR · draw · LYO
2–1
Likeliest PAR win · 9%
PARIS FC 39%DRAW 26%LYON 35%
Expected goals: PAR 1.58 · LYO 1.49
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
PAR or draw65%
Draw or LYO61%
PAR or LYOno draw75%
Draw no bet
PARstake returned on a draw53%
LYO47%
Clean sheets
PAR clean sheet23%
LYO clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAR↓ LYO→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 5.5%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paris FC and Lyon — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
PAR 02 drawn0 LYO
2025/26Lyon1–1Paris FC2026-03-08
2025/26Paris FC3–3Lyon2025-10-29
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.