Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Nice vs Strasbourg
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
36 · 26 · 39NIC · draw · STR
1–2
Likeliest STR win · 9%
NICE 36%DRAW 26%STRASBOURG 39%
Expected goals: NIC 1.48 · STR 1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
NIC or draw61%
Draw or STR64%
NIC or STRno draw74%
Draw no bet
NICstake returned on a draw48%
STR52%
Clean sheets
NIC clean sheet21%
STR clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NIC↓ STR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NIC goals, columns STR. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Nice and Strasbourg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 17 meetings since 2017/18
NIC 55 drawn7 STR
2025/26Strasbourg3–1Nice2026-04-04
2025/26Nice1–1Strasbourg2026-01-03
2024/25Strasbourg2–2Nice2025-04-12
2024/25Nice2–1Strasbourg2024-11-24
2023/24Strasbourg1–3Nice2024-04-28
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.