Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Nice vs Rennes
Saturday 31 Oct, 16:15
38 · 24 · 38NIC · draw · REN
1–2
Likeliest REN win · 8%
NICE 38%DRAW 24%RENNES 38%
Expected goals: NIC 1.71 · REN 1.72
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
NIC or draw62%
Draw or REN62%
NIC or RENno draw76%
Draw no bet
NICstake returned on a draw50%
REN50%
Clean sheets
NIC clean sheet18%
REN clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NIC↓ REN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NIC goals, columns REN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Nice and Rennes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
NIC 125 drawn7 REN
2025/26Nice0–4Rennes2026-03-08
2025/26Rennes1–2Nice2025-10-26
2024/25Rennes2–0Nice2025-05-10
2024/25Nice3–2Rennes2025-01-03
2023/24Rennes2–0Nice2024-01-13
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.