Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Nice vs Lille

Sunday 20 Sept, 15:15

Full time

2–1

chances 1.93 – 1.93 xG

✗ missed — we picked LIL; the NIC win we priced at 27%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

27 · 28 · 46NIC · draw · LIL

NICE 27%DRAW 28%LILLE 46%

Expected goals: NIC 1.08 · LIL 1.49

Goals

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams score52%

Double chance

NIC or draw54%

Draw or LIL73%

NIC or LILno draw72%

Draw no bet

NICstake returned on a draw37%

LIL63%

Clean sheets

NIC clean sheet23%

LIL clean sheet34%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.