Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Nice vs Le Mans
Saturday 5 Sept, 18:45
53 · 24 · 24NIC · draw · LMF
2–1
Likeliest NIC win · 10%
NICE 53%DRAW 24%LE MANS 24%
Expected goals: NIC 1.90 · LMF 1.23
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
NIC or draw76%
Draw or LMF48%
NIC or LMFno draw76%
Draw no bet
NICstake returned on a draw69%
LMF31%
Clean sheets
NIC clean sheet29%
LMF clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| NIC↓ LMF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are NIC goals, columns LMF. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Nice and Le Mans — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.