Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Monaco vs Toulouse
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:00
50 · 25 · 25MON · draw · TOU
2–1
Likeliest MON win · 10%
MONACO 50%DRAW 25%TOULOUSE 25%
Expected goals: MON 1.75 · TOU 1.16
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
MON or draw76%
Draw or TOU50%
MON or TOUno draw75%
Draw no bet
MONstake returned on a draw67%
TOU33%
Clean sheets
MON clean sheet31%
TOU clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MON↓ TOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MON goals, columns TOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monaco and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 19 meetings since 2014/15
MON 115 drawn3 TOU
2025/26Toulouse2–2Monaco2026-04-25
2025/26Monaco1–0Toulouse2025-10-25
2024/25Toulouse1–1Monaco2025-03-07
2024/25Monaco2–0Toulouse2024-12-07
2023/24Monaco1–2Toulouse2024-02-18
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.