Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Monaco vs Marseille

Sunday 30 Aug, 18:45
Full time
2–0
chances 1.61 – 1.25 xG
✓ called — we picked MON; the MON win we priced at 42%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
42 · 23 · 34MON · draw · MAR
2–1
Likeliest MON win · 9%
MONACO 42%DRAW 23%MARSEILLE 34%

Expected goals: MON 1.86 · MAR 1.66

Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals47%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
MON or draw66%
Draw or MAR58%
MON or MARno draw77%
Draw no bet
MONstake returned on a draw55%
MAR45%
Clean sheets
MON clean sheet19%
MAR clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
MON↓ MAR→012345
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2–0 · 5.1%
A MON win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monaco and Marseille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 23 meetings since 2014/15
MON 105 drawn8 MAR
2025/26Monaco2–1Marseille2026-04-05
2025/26Marseille1–0Monaco2025-12-14
2024/25Monaco3–0Marseille2025-04-12
2024/25Marseille2–1Monaco2024-12-01
2023/24Marseille2–2Monaco2024-01-27

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.