Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Monaco vs Lille
Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00
42 · 28 · 30MON · draw · LIL
1–0
Likeliest MON win · 10%
MONACO 42%DRAW 28%LILLE 30%
Expected goals: MON 1.46 · LIL 1.20
Goals
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
MON or draw70%
Draw or LIL58%
MON or LILno draw73%
Draw no bet
MONstake returned on a draw58%
LIL42%
Clean sheets
MON clean sheet30%
LIL clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MON↓ LIL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MON goals, columns LIL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monaco and Lille — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 23 meetings since 2014/15
MON 97 drawn7 LIL
2025/26Monaco0–1Lille2026-05-10
2025/26Lille1–0Monaco2025-08-24
2024/25Lille2–1Monaco2025-02-22
2024/25Monaco0–0Lille2024-10-18
2023/24Monaco1–0Lille2024-04-24
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.