Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Monaco vs Lens

Friday 18 Sept, 18:45

Full time

2–1

chances 1.54 – 1.46 xG

✗ missed — we picked LEN; the MON win we priced at 37%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

37 · 25 · 38MON · draw · LEN

MONACO 37%DRAW 25%LENS 38%

Expected goals: MON 1.61 · LEN 1.63

Goals

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams score65%

Double chance

MON or draw62%

Draw or LEN63%

MON or LENno draw75%

Draw no bet

MONstake returned on a draw50%

LEN50%

Clean sheets

MON clean sheet20%

LEN clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.