Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Marseille vs Toulouse
Sunday 1 Nov, 19:45
47 · 24 · 29MAR · draw · TOU
2–1
Likeliest MAR win · 9%
MARSEILLE 47%DRAW 24%TOULOUSE 29%
Expected goals: MAR 1.86 · TOU 1.44
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
MAR or draw71%
Draw or TOU53%
MAR or TOUno draw76%
Draw no bet
MARstake returned on a draw62%
TOU38%
Clean sheets
MAR clean sheet24%
TOU clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAR↓ TOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAR goals, columns TOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Marseille and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
MAR 137 drawn0 TOU
2025/26Toulouse0–1Marseille2026-03-07
2025/26Marseille2–2Toulouse2025-11-29
2024/25Marseille3–2Toulouse2025-04-06
2024/25Toulouse1–3Marseille2024-08-31
2023/24Toulouse2–2Marseille2024-04-21
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.