Ligue 1 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Marseille vs Strasbourg
Friday 21 Aug, 19:45
Full time
4–0
chances 2.35 – 0.19 xG
✓ called — we picked MAR; the MAR win we priced at 52%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
52 · 22 · 26MAR · draw · STR
2–1
Likeliest MAR win · 9%
MARSEILLE 52%DRAW 22%STRASBOURG 26%
Expected goals: MAR 2.18 · STR 1.52
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score70%
Double chance
MAR or draw74%
Draw or STR48%
MAR or STRno draw78%
Draw no bet
MARstake returned on a draw67%
STR33%
Clean sheets
MAR clean sheet25%
STR clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAR↓ STR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–0 · 2.5%
A MAR win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Marseille and Strasbourg — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 17 meetings since 2017/18
MAR 79 drawn1 STR
2025/26Marseille2–2Strasbourg2026-02-14
2025/26Strasbourg1–2Marseille2025-09-26
2024/25Marseille1–1Strasbourg2025-01-19
2024/25Strasbourg1–0Marseille2024-09-29
2023/24Marseille1–1Strasbourg2024-01-12
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.