Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Marseille vs Paris FC
Sunday 6 Sept, 19:45
Full time
2–3
chances 1.72 – 3.38 xG
✗ missed — we picked MAR; the PAR win we priced at 21%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
57 · 22 · 21MAR · draw · PAR
2–1
Likeliest MAR win · 10%
MARSEILLE 57%DRAW 22%PARIS FC 21%
Expected goals: MAR 2.11 · PAR 1.24
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
MAR or draw79%
Draw or PAR43%
MAR or PARno draw78%
Draw no bet
MARstake returned on a draw73%
PAR27%
Clean sheets
MAR clean sheet29%
PAR clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAR↓ PAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
2–3 · 2.5%
A PAR win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Marseille and Paris FC — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2025/26
MAR 11 drawn0 PAR
2025/26Paris FC2–2Marseille2026-01-31
2025/26Marseille5–2Paris FC2025-08-23
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.