Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Marseille vs Le Havre
Sunday 25 Oct, 16:15
64 · 20 · 16MAR · draw · LE
2–1
Likeliest MAR win · 10%
MARSEILLE 64%DRAW 20%LE HAVRE 16%
Expected goals: MAR 2.27 · LE 1.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
MAR or draw84%
Draw or LE36%
MAR or LEno draw80%
Draw no bet
MARstake returned on a draw80%
LE20%
Clean sheets
MAR clean sheet35%
LE clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAR↓ LE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAR goals, columns LE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Marseille and Le Havre — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2023/24
MAR 60 drawn0 LE
2025/26Le Havre0–1Marseille2026-05-10
2025/26Marseille6–2Le Havre2025-10-18
2024/25Le Havre1–3Marseille2025-05-10
2024/25Marseille5–1Le Havre2025-01-05
2023/24Le Havre1–2Marseille2024-05-19
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.