Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
Lyon vs Rennes
Saturday 19 Sept, 18:45
Full time
4–0
chances 3.60 – 1.16 xG
✓ called — we picked LYO; the LYO win we priced at 48%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
48 · 24 · 28LYO · draw · REN
2–1
Likeliest LYO win · 9%
LYON 48%DRAW 24%RENNES 28%
Expected goals: LYO 1.84 · REN 1.38
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
LYO or draw72%
Draw or REN52%
LYO or RENno draw76%
Draw no bet
LYOstake returned on a draw63%
REN37%
Clean sheets
LYO clean sheet25%
REN clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LYO↓ REN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–0 · 1.9%
A LYO win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lyon and Rennes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 23 meetings since 2014/15
LYO 103 drawn10 REN
2025/26Lyon4–2Rennes2026-05-03
2025/26Rennes3–1Lyon2025-09-14
2024/25Lyon4–1Rennes2025-04-26
2024/25Rennes3–0Lyon2024-08-18
2023/24Lyon2–3Rennes2024-01-26
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.