Ligue 1 · engine xGB Current v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Lyon vs Nice
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:00
59 · 22 · 19LYO · draw · NIC
2–1
Likeliest LYO win · 10%
LYON 59%DRAW 22%NICE 19%
Expected goals: LYO 2.05 · NIC 1.08
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
LYO or draw82%
Draw or NIC41%
LYO or NICno draw78%
Draw no bet
LYOstake returned on a draw76%
NIC24%
Clean sheets
LYO clean sheet34%
NIC clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LYO↓ NIC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LYO goals, columns NIC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lyon and Nice — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
LYO 104 drawn10 NIC
2025/26Lyon2–0Nice2026-02-15
2025/26Nice3–2Lyon2025-10-18
2024/25Nice0–2Lyon2025-03-09
2024/25Lyon4–1Nice2024-12-01
2023/24Lyon1–0Nice2024-02-16
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.